NIUQAOJ: diciembre 2006

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LOST: Coincidences happen

Hurley hits the numbers, then crashes on the island, and lives

Hurley hits the numbers: From a naval listening post, Leonard Simms hears the The Numbers broadcast from the island. Hurley learns the numbers from him, plays them and wins the lottery. The odds of choosing the winning numbers in a lottery with six double-digit numbers, if 00 is not used, are (99 * 98 * 97 * 96 * 95 * 94)/720, or one in 1,120,529,256.
Hurley crashes. It's more likely to be involved in a fatal accident on one of the riskier airlines, so a conservative estimate should use them for a factor. Of the 25 airlines with the worst accident records, the odds of being on one of their aircraft during a fatal event is one in 386,000.
On the island. If you crash in the huge Pacifc Ocean, the odds of crashing on or near an island are remote. A lot of water, little land. Oahu, a big island, is 44 miles (71 km) in its greatest dimension. Sydney to Los Angeles is 7,503 miles. Assuming an island the size of Oahu is under the flight path of a SYD-LAX airliner, the odds of hitting it are 44 in 7,503, or one in 170.52. This is a conservative estimate; a more realistic one might involve dividing the area of the Pacific by the area of a smaller island.
Hurley survives. Using a sample of 12 notable mid-air break-ups followed by a crash, the odds of surviving such an event are about one in 475.
Improbable coincidence: The odds of experiencing these events in succession must be less than one in 1,120,529,256 * 386,000 * 170.52 * 475 = 35,033,170,145,217,600,000. That is, less than one in 35 x 10¹⁸, or, one in 35 quintillions (short scale). This conservative estimate doesn't include the chances of the island being the very same island from which the numbers emanated.